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Table of Contents
I. The Macro Thesis
The global luxury watch market has completed its post-pandemic correction and entered what Chrono24 calls a “stable, collector-focused economy.” After thirteen consecutive quarters of secondary-market price declines, 2025 delivered the first positive year since 2022, with pre-owned prices rising 4.9% while auction houses shattered records — Phillips alone achieved $370 million, the highest annual total in watch auction history. The defining narrative is a structural shift: speculative flippers have exited, dress watches and precious metals are ascendant, Gen Z is reshaping demand, and US tariffs have redrawn the geography of watch commerce.
Balazs Ferenczi, Chrono24’s Head of Brand Engagement, captured the moment precisely in the platform’s February 2026 Year-End Market Review: “The ‘Tourist Investor’ has left, and the ‘True Collector’ is back in charge.”
This is the most data-rich, intellectually rewarding era to be a thoughtful collector. What follows is a comprehensive survey of the forces that brought us here — and where they point next.
II. The Auction Signal: What 2025’s Results Actually Tell Us
The 2025 auction season was historically unprecedented, with all three major houses posting strong results and Phillips achieving outright dominance.
Phillips in Association with Bacs & Russo delivered its strongest year ever: $290,463,315 in auction sales — a world record for any watch auction department — plus $80 million in private sales and Phillips Perpetual, totaling $370 million across all channels. The house sold 1,802 lots across six live and seven online auctions with a 99% sell-through rate by lot and 100% by value. Thirty-six timepieces exceeded $1 million — the most in the industry. Hammer prices plus premiums totaled 246% of pre-sale low estimates, with 59% of lots selling above high estimates. An estimated 45% global market share versus Sotheby’s and Christie’s combined cemented Phillips’ position. Notably, 35% of buyers were new to Phillips, and 32% were Millennial or Gen Z collectors.
Phillips’ Geneva “Decade One” sale in November achieved CHF 66.8 million — the highest-grossing watch auction ever held anywhere, with all 207 lots sold. The New York Watch Auction XIII in December totaled $43.5 million — the highest-grossing watch auction in US history, again achieving a white-glove 100% sell-through across 144 lots, with eight of the top ten lots being F.P. Journe timepieces.
Aurel Bacs and Livia Russo stated: “With over US $290 million in total auction sales — the highest annual total ever achieved in the history of watch auctions — we are proud to reaffirm our leadership in the global market.”
Sotheby’s posted a record $193.6 million in watch sales for 2025, up 22% year-over-year. Their December New York Important Watches sale achieved $42.8 million — the highest-grossing watch auction in Sotheby’s history globally — with 100% sell-through and 1,850 registered bidders from approximately 50 countries. The Olmsted Complications Collection within that sale totaled $22.4 million alone, 100% sold.
Christie’s posted solid results: their December New York sale achieved $9.3 million at 96% sold, with the June New York sale reaching $13.25 million at 100% sell-through.
The headline lots that defined the year
The Patek Philippe Ref. 1518 in stainless steel — one of four known, dating to 1943 — sold for CHF 14,190,000 (approximately $17.6 million) at Phillips Geneva’s Decade One sale. Five bidders competed for nine minutes and twenty-eight seconds. It was the most valuable vintage Patek wristwatch and most valuable timepiece at auction globally in 2025.
The F.P. Journe FFC Prototype — Francis Ford Coppola’s personal watch, one of only two prototypes — sold for $10,775,000 at Phillips New York after eleven minutes of bidding starting at $1 million. This set records as the most expensive independent watchmaker timepiece at auction and the highest US auction result since the Paul Newman Daytona in 2017.
The Audemars Piguet “Grosse Pièce” pocket watch from the Olmsted Collection — described as the most complicated watch ever made by Audemars Piguet, with eighteen complications and an astronomical star chart — sold for $7,736,000 at Sotheby’s New York against a $500,000–$1,000,000 estimate, exceeding the high estimate by more than seven times.
Philippe Dufour’s Duality No. 1 sold for $3,085,000 at Phillips New York against a $1–2 million estimate. The F.P. Journe Chronomètre à Résonance Souscription No. 2 achieved CHF 3,327,000 at Phillips Geneva — double the model’s pre-sale ballpark value. And the Berneron Mirage Sienna sold for $190,500 at Phillips New York — approximately three times its list price, from a brand producing only twenty-four pieces per year.
What connects these results is not brand prestige in the conventional sense. It is story, provenance, and intellectual depth. The market is rewarding scholarship over speculation.
III. Five Currents Shaping the Market
Current 1: The Rise of the Considered Collector
The Chrono24 and Fratello H1 2025 Secondary Watch Market Report revealed structural shifts that should command the attention of anyone paying attention to where demand is heading.
Dress watch demand among Gen Z has surged 44% since 2018 — versus a 29% average increase among other age groups. Today, 12% of all Gen Z watch purchases are dress watches, the highest share among any demographic. Cartier’s share among Gen Z quadrupled from 1.7% to 6.8% over seven years. Rectangular watch shapes rose 9.3% in 2025. Moon phase complications surged 15.3% in popularity.
Within Rolex, the Daytona overtook the Submariner as the second most popular line in H1 2025, trailing only the Datejust. US average selling prices rose 8.43% comparing Q4 2024 to Q4 2025. Additional design trends show green dials up 9.5%, champagne dials up 7.9%, and gold dials up 6.5%, while standard blue and black remained flat.
Fratello CEO Timo Holz summarized: “Gen Z’s embrace of dress watches goes beyond a passing trend — it is a redefinition of taste and self-expression in watch collecting.”
The implication is significant: the market is moving from “what’s hottest” to “what’s best.” In this context, dealers who educate will matter more than dealers who merely stock.
Current 2: Independent Watchmaking — The Reckoning
If the 2025 auction season proved anything, it is that independent watchmaking has been permanently elevated from niche curiosity to market-moving force. F.P. Journe dominated Phillips’ New York XIII sale, claiming eight of the top ten lots. Journe and Philippe Dufour together secured nine of the top ten lots on day one. F.P. Journe produces only approximately 800 to 1,000 mechanical watches per year with roughly 200 employees — making these results remarkable on a per-unit basis.
Akrivia, led by 34-year-old Rexhep Rexhepi, produces fewer than 30 watches per year from a team of seven in Geneva. The Chronomètre Contemporain I, which originally retailed under $70,000, has sold at auction for $924,000 in pink gold and $1,274,852 in platinum. Kari Voutilainen, producing approximately 70 timepieces per year, won the GPHG 2025 Artistic Crafts category.
A notable corporate development: at Dubai Watch Week in November 2025, Breitling CEO Georges Kern unveiled a “House of Brands” strategy uniting three historic maisons — Breitling, Universal Genève (acquired December 2023, positioned above Breitling in ultra-luxury, relaunching in 2026), and Gallet (acquired 2025, positioned as entry-luxury, launching autumn 2026).
F.P. Journe’s museum project in Geneva is confirmed for 2026, intended as a broader watchmaking history museum rather than a brand showcase.
However, experts are flagging risks. Paul Engel of Aircooltime warned that F.P. Journe’s rapid rise may begin to cool after the dramatic 2025 results, and predicted greater price discrimination in favor of independents with proven history and market presence over those that merely rode the wave. Asher Rapkin of Collective Horology predicted that some independents under financial pressure may seek additional funding or even be acquired — outcomes that could fuel innovation or, if mismanaged, alienate the collectors who made those brands desirable in the first place.
The golden age of independent watchmaking has arrived. But not every name will reach the other shore.
Current 3: The Quiet Return to Gold
Gold has become perhaps the most important force reshaping collector behavior. As of mid-March 2026, gold trades at approximately $5,020–$5,060 per ounce, having hit an all-time high of $5,595 on January 29, 2026. Goldman Sachs forecasts $5,400 by year-end; Wells Fargo projects as high as $6,300; J.P. Morgan targets $5,055; Bank of America sees a possible $6,000.
This has created a phenomenon unprecedented in the modern vintage watch era. A gold watch containing $12,000–$25,000 worth of gold at current prices creates a hard floor beneath which the watch cannot fall. Veteran dealer Matthew Bain reported in December 2025: “For the first time in the modern vintage era, some collectible gold watches are worth more melted down than they are as watches.” At antique shows, dealers were weighing watches on digital scales before negotiating. Eugene Tutunikov, CEO of SwissWatchExpo, confirmed: “We’re seeing more people liquidate gold watches purely for their metal value.”
Collectors can now buy some gold watches at only 10–20% above melt value — margins unthinkable a decade ago. Heritage Auctions documented a consistent narrowing of the gap between stainless steel and precious metal variants of the same model, with gold versions in some cases commanding premiums over their steel counterparts — a reversal that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.
It’s worth noting that The Rare Corner currently holds a number of pieces that exemplify this trend — gold Piaget dress watches, Vacheron Constantin yellow gold integrated-bracelet references, A. Lange & Söhne yellow gold 1815 variants, vintage Patek Philippe gold Calatravas, and Breguet yellow gold triple calendar moonphases. These are precisely the kind of pieces where collector value and intrinsic material value are converging.
Current 4: The Case Size Correction
A decade ago, 42–44mm was considered the standard case diameter. Today, the sweet spot has settled firmly at 36–38mm.
This is more than cyclical fashion. It reflects a deeper aesthetic awakening: a rediscovery of classical proportions, a pragmatic return to wearing comfort, and an understanding that presence on the wrist does not require volume.
The data supports the shift. Chrono24 reports rectangular cases up 9.3%, dress watch demand surging 44% among Gen Z. Universal Genève Polerouters at 35–36mm are selling at unprecedented prices. Omega Constellation “Pie Pan” models at 35mm are generating heated auction activity.
For vintage watch collectors, this represents a significant inflection point. Pieces that were dismissed as “too small” five years ago — 32 to 36mm dress watches — now find themselves at the center of market demand.
The Rare Corner’s inventory includes many such classically-sized pieces: Audemars Piguet 32mm white gold dress watches, Cartier Tank references in various sizes, Jaeger-LeCoultre Reverso and vintage square-cased models, and Piaget ultra-thins. These pieces suddenly find themselves at the center of the conversation.
Current 5: The A. Lange & Söhne Opportunity
If there is one “unspoken secret” of the 2025 market, it is the significant undervaluation of A. Lange & Söhne on the secondary market.
The WatchCharts A. Lange & Söhne Index fell 5.3% over the past year while the overall market rose 8.3%. The Lange 1 averages approximately $31,000 on the secondary market. Yet Lange’s movement finishing is widely regarded as peer-leading among non-independent brands — Philippe Dufour himself has stated that the best chronograph ever made is the Datograph. Production numbers remain extremely limited.
Sean Song of S.Song Watches in Kuala Lumpur delivered a specific prediction: “I think 2026 will see the reemergence of A. Lange & Söhne watches in the used market, especially early and rare examples. For the last few years, retail prices of new, high-end watches from Patek, Vacheron, and Lange have been sky high, with the used Lange market being significantly soft. I think collectors will finally notice the huge gap in pricing and pounce on what are, essentially, low quantity, extremely well-finished watches.”
The Rare Corner currently holds seven Lange pieces, including the 1815 Moonphase “Homage to F.A. Lange,” the Odysseus in 18K white gold, the 1815 Annual Calendar in white gold, the Cabaret Moonphase Big Date in yellow gold, the 1815 Up/Down in yellow gold, and the 1815 Chronograph. For collectors beginning to recognize this opportunity, these are references worth examining closely.
IV. The Contrarian View: What the Market Is Getting Wrong About China
Amid generally optimistic sentiment, one prevailing narrative deserves challenge: the idea that the Chinese market has “slowed down.”
Swiss exports to China fell 12% in 2025 after a 25.8% decline in 2024 — a cumulative drop of over a third in two years. The numbers are real. But September 2025 showed a surprising 17.8% rebound, potentially signaling the start of recovery.
Jacques Roizen of Digital Luxury Group in Shanghai framed the situation as evolution, not decline: “Luxury is not in decline; it is undergoing a structural evolution. 2026 will favor brands that prioritize cultural intelligence.”
Chinese collectors are becoming more sophisticated, more discerning — they are no longer chasing brand names blindly but researching movement architecture, historical provenance, and collection logic. Chinese independent watchmakers like Fam Al Hut, winner of the 2025 GPHG Audacity Prize, are now competing at the highest levels of haute horlogerie on the international stage.
Labeling the Chinese market simply as “weak” is a dangerous misread. The real picture: shallow consumption is receding, while deep collecting is rising.
V. The Tariff Storm: Redrawing the Map of Watch Commerce
The 2025 US tariff episode was the single biggest external shock to the watch industry in recent memory.
On April 2, 2025 — one day after Watches & Wonders Geneva opened — President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. On August 1, Swiss National Day, the White House announced a 39% tariff on Swiss goods, effective August 7. Swiss watch exports to the US collapsed 55.6% in September, falling from CHF 355 million to CHF 158 million year-over-year. The US dropped from first to third among Swiss watch export destinations.
On November 14, the US and Switzerland reached a deal reducing the tariff to 15% after approximately 99 days at the higher rate. December exports immediately rebounded 19.2%.
The tariffs created a structural advantage for the pre-owned market. The 39% rate applied to both new and pre-owned watches imported after August 7 — only watches already within the US avoided the duty, making domestic pre-owned inventory especially attractive. Bob’s Watches reported a 26% increase in average order value. Some US retailers opened offices in Hong Kong and Dubai. Pre-owned sales grew approximately 30% in 2025.
Full-year Swiss exports totaled CHF 25.55 billion, down 1.7% — a mild contraction given the multiple headwinds. The bright spots were emerging markets: India grew 8.9%, Saudi Arabia gained 9%. Asia-Pacific dominated the global market with a 41.79% share. India’s luxury watch market is valued at approximately $1.6 billion and growing at 11–12% annually.
VI. What This Means for the Thoughtful Collector
Several patterns emerge from this data that reward attention rather than action.
The types of pieces that are well-positioned share common characteristics: original condition, precious metals, complicated movements, and manufacture by houses with constrained production and genuine finishing depth. The brands and references that will outperform from here are those with heritage that cannot be manufactured and identity that cannot be replicated.
The mindset that serves collectors best is one of patience, education, and collection coherence. The era of buying whatever is hardest to get is giving way to the era of buying what you genuinely understand and appreciate. Authentication and trusted curation have never been more important — in a market where “superfakes” are eroding the exclusivity of physical goods, the provenance chain from dealer to collector is becoming a form of value in itself.
For those watching the macro environment, the competition between hard luxury and experiential luxury is real. Luxury hotel rates are up 90% since 2019; net positive spending intention for watches among high-net-worth individuals stands at 17%, solid but trailing travel at 59% and hospitality at 56%. The watch brands that will thrive are those creating genuine experiences and intellectual depth around their products — not merely selling metal and movements.
VII. From Our Collection
As we survey our own shelves, a few pieces feel particularly resonant with the themes explored above.
The seven A. Lange & Söhne references — especially the 1815 Moonphase and yellow gold Cabaret Moonphase — sit at the heart of the undervaluation discussion. Vacheron Constantin’s yellow gold integrated-bracelet pieces and white gold triple calendar moonphase represent institutional-grade collectibles against a backdrop of 52% five-year ChronoPulse gains. Patek Philippe’s gold Calatravas, including the Ref. 5032/1J integrated bracelet and the vintage square Ellipse 3566/1, carry self-evident material value support at historic gold prices.
Cartier’s Tank collection — from the CPCP rose gold Tank à Vis to the classic Tank Louis — occupies the precise intersection of Gen Z-driven rectangular case growth and enduring design authority. Piaget’s ultra-thin gold references find new context in the dual tailwinds of case size correction and gold’s surge. And the F.P. Journe Octa Lune 40mm in rose gold with salmon dial represents a different kind of scarcity narrative, against the backdrop of Journe’s historic auction season.
Collectors exploring these themes are welcome to browse the full catalogue at therarecorner.com.
VIII. Closing Reflection
In November 2025, as Aurel Bacs brought the hammer down on lot after lot at Geneva’s Decade One sale — 207 lots, every single one finding a buyer — something became clear that had been building for three years. The market hadn’t crashed after the 2022 bubble. It had clarified.
The speculators departed and took their noise with them. What remained was a community of collectors who buy because they understand, who hold because they appreciate, and who are building collections with coherence rather than chasing trophies with urgency.
Gold at $5,000 has rewritten the economics of precious metal watches. A new generation is discovering that a 35mm dress watch in yellow gold says more about its wearer than any oversized steel sport watch ever could. Independent watchmakers are being recognized not as curiosities but as the purest expression of what watchmaking was always supposed to be. And brands like A. Lange & Söhne, whose finishing quality has never been in question, are finally being reconsidered at price points that make informed collectors pause and think.
This is not a market of easy wins. It is a market that rewards the qualities that matter in any serious pursuit: knowledge, patience, taste, and the quiet confidence to trust your own judgment.
For those who understand, it has never been a better time to collect.
Sources
- Chrono24 — 2025 Watch Market Review: Stability Returns, Speculation Fades, and “Elegance” Becomes the New Driver of Growth (February 2026) — Year-end ChronoPulse data, brand market share movements, Ferenczi quotes
- Chrono24 × Fratello — Secondary Watch Market Report H1 2025 (October 2025) — Gen Z dress watch data, Cartier market share, rectangular case and moonphase trends, Rolex line rankings
- Chrono24 — ChronoPulse Long-Term Analysis — Five-year brand performance data (AP, VC, Cartier, Patek, Omega, Rolex, Hublot, Tudor, Panerai), top-performing models
- Phillips — Year In Review, 2025: Phillips In Association With Bacs & Russo — Annual totals, sell-through rates, buyer demographics, Bacs & Russo quotes
- Monochrome Watches — Swiss Watch Exports Down 1.7% to CHF 25.5 Billion in 2025 (January 2026) — Full-year FH export data, regional breakdowns, India/Saudi growth, volume and value trends
- Monochrome Watches — Swiss Watch Exports to the U.S. Have Dropped 56% in September 2025 (October 2025) — Monthly tariff impact data, China rebound, Hong Kong/Japan shifts
- Robb Report — Oracle Time: Watch-World Predictions for 2026, According to 5 Experts (December 2025) — Expert quotes from Sean Song, Paul Engel, Asher Rapkin, Yoni Ben-Yehuda
- Matthew Bain Inc. — Market Report: The Gold Melt Squeeze Is Reshaping the Vintage Watch Market (December 2025) — Gold floor value analysis, melt value economics, dealer observations, Tutunikov quote
- WatchGecko — December 2025 Watch Auction Update: New York Highlights — Sotheby’s Olmsted Collection results, Christie’s December results, Dufour and Berneron lot details
- WatchPro / JCK — US-Switzerland Tariff Deal Coverage (November 2025) — 39% to 15% tariff reduction timeline, Greer confirmation, secondary market impact
